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This Week: August 23rd to August 27th

This week has treasury borrowing a total of $102B in 2 year, 5 year, and 7 year notes with a total of $2B, less than last month’s series. The demand for this week’s auctions will be a measuring stick. Weak demand for the three auctions will more than likely send rates up a little. Over the past two weeks mortgage rates have settled in a narrow range while the yield on the bellwether 10 year note has fallen 20 basis points within the last two weeks.

On the economic calendar July existing house sales are thought to have plummeted 13% while unique home sales are expected to be up 3.%. Existing property sales in June dropped 5.1%, following a 2.2% decline the month before. Sales for the latest month (June) came in at a 5.37 million annual rate and are up 9.8% on a year-ago basis, compared to up 19.2% in May. Existing home sales made much more of a comeback than expected in June, rebounding 23.6% after plunging 36.7% in May. The June pace recovered to an annualized 330,000 from a revised 267,000 for May. The June percentage was large and that primarily was due to coming off a record low base.

The week also has those weekly jobless claims, as of this weekend the expectations are for claims to decline 15K from 500K to 485K.

Markets will also get the Q2 GDP revision anticipated to be at 1.4%, down from 2.4% reported last month in the advance release.

Look for the rate markets to continue testing current low yields with the potential of some backup with the levels of rates now at such low levels investors might be backing off.

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This Week’s Manhattan Mortgage Economic Calendar:

Tuesday 8-24-2010

• 10:00 am July Existing Home Sales (-13% At 4.65 Million Units Annually)
• 1:00 pm $37B 2 Year Note Auction

Wednesday 8-25-2010

• 7:00 am Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications
• 8:30 am July Durable Goods Orders (+3.0%, Ex Transportation Orders +0.5%)
• 10:00 am July Home Sales (+3.0% To 340K Units Annually)
• 1:00 pm $36B 5 Year Note Auction

Thursday 8-26-2010

• 8:30 am Weekly Jobless Claims (-15K To 485K)
• 1:00 pm $29B 7 Yr Note Auction

Friday 8-27-2010

• 8:30 am Q2 GDP Revision (+1.4% From +2.4% In The Advance Report Last Month)
• 9:55 am August Final University Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (70.0 From 69.6)

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This Week: August 9th to August 13th

Treasury will auction a total of $74B of 23 year, 10 yr and 30 year issues in the Quarterly refunding. These auctions will be a real test of the new low treasury and mortgages rates.

There is not much economic data until Thursday with weekly unemployment claims and Friday with July retail sales, July CPI and the mid-month University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

The FOMC meets on Tuesday for a one day meeting with its policy statement out at 2:15 pm. The statement won’t likely be anything new. Most likely, all we will hear is the same ol’ – same ol’, “the economy is struggling and consumers still not increasing spending month”. Basicly what the FOMC said last month.

The statement will reaffirm that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates low for an prolonged period. Look for United States interest rates to be choppy with strain into Wednesday with the Treasury auction of $24B – 10 yr notes.

Last Week: August 2nd to August 6th

As the United States economic trend has unfolded, last week brought us more mixed economic news.

The two Institute for Supply Management reports continue to be above contraction levels but are weakening. The larger than expected drop in factory orders made sense after we saw the continued decline in orders from the ISM reports.

Auto and truck sales were up for July but sales could crash if employment and incomes weaken.

Personal income and spending were flat in June so no surprise that the consumer is still on the sidelines as was confirmed by this Friday’s July retail sales report.

The employment reports were, once again, as bad as expected.

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This Week’s Manhattan Mortgage Economic Calendar:

Tuesday 8-10-2010

• 8:30am Q2 productivity (+0.1%)
• Q2 Unit Labor Costs (+1.4%)
• 10:00am June Wholesale Inventories (+0.4%)
• 1:00pm $34B 3 year Note Auction
• 2:15pm FOMC Policy Statement

Wednesday 8-11-2010

• 7:00am MBA Mortgage Applications
• 8:30am June Trade Deficit (-$42.5B)
• 1:00pm $24B 10 yr Note Auction
• 2:00pm July Treasury Budget Deficit (-$169B)

Thursday 8-12-2010

• 8:30am Weekly Jobless Claims (-14K to 465K)
• 1:00pm $16B 30 yr Bond Auction

Friday 8-13-2010

• 8:30am July Retail Sales (+0.5%; ex auto sales +0.2%)
• July CPI (+0.2%; ex food and energy +0.1%)
• 9:55am Univesrity of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (70.0 from 67.8)
• 10:00am June Business Inventories (+0.2%)

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This Week: August 2nd to August 6th

Markets have a plate full of data to work on but the week has nothing that will overcome the employment report for July that will be released on Friday.

Early estimates are for a decline of 87K jobs but somewhat deceiving in that the decline in jobs is census related and some decline due to the annual auto manufacturers layoffs for retooling for the new model year. On the other hand, when the census jobs were created, the Obama administration claimed the employment outlook was better.

The unemployment rate is thought to be at 9.6% up 0.1% from June. Employment is obviously key data and is subject to interpretation. Historically, employment data generates debate between those that know unemployment is much higher than the headline data, those that know that employment is a lagging indicator and doesn’t improve until well into recovery and finally for those who manipulate the data for their own political gain.

During this particular recession, employment information is different. Many of the jobs that were lost will, at best, not reappear for a long time and at worst, they are gone forever.

Markets begin the week with the same debate as in recent weeks. Although earnings have been strong and fuel economic growth ideas, it suggests the question as to who SPECIFICALLY is buying the products that manufacturers are producing?

Housing continues to shows no improvement with over 4.8 million families foreclosed upon since Obama took office and there is increasing concern that deflation is the new giant on the horizon.

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This Week’s Manhattan Mortgage Economic Calendar:

Tuesday 8-3-2010

• 8:30am July Personal Income And Spending
• 10:00am June Factory Orders (-0.5%)
• 2:00pm July Auto And Truck Sales
• June Pending Home Sales -5.0%

Wednesday 8-4-2010

• 7:00am Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications
• 8:15am ADP July Private Jobs Estimate (+25K)
• 10:00am ISM Services Sector Index (53.0 from 53.8 in June)

Thursday 8-5-2010

• 8:30am Weekly Jobless Claims (-2K To 455K, Continuing Claims 4.530 Mil From 4.565 mil)

Friday 8-6-2010

• 8:30am July Employment From BLS ( Non-farm Jobs -70K; Private Jobs +100K)
• 3:00pm June Consumer Credit (-$5.7B)
• July Unemployment Rate (9.6% from 9.5%)

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This Week: July 26th to July 30th

After a strong week in the stock market and selling in the bond market, the primary focus this week will be within the Treasury auctions.

Treasury auctions typically are an issue with traders, however, over the last 18 months, the Treasury has seen a strong demand for its borrowing.

A total of $104B of notes will be sold beginning on Tuesday with $38B of 2 year notes, Wed $37B of 5 year notes and Thursday $29B of 7 year notes.

Monday’s June new home sales on are expected to be up 4.25% from the fall off in May.

Other key data points this week are on Friday with the first look at early estimates for Q2 Gross Domestic Product. It is expected at +2.5% from +2.7% in Q1.

Friday we will get the Chicago Purchasing Mangers Index and it is expected at 67.0 from 66.5 in June.

While the 10 year note and the 5 year note rates increased 7 basis points last week, mortgage rates generally were unchanged. Most of the recent rate market volatility is within the treasuries while mortgage rates remain comparatively stable.

The primary driver for 30 year mortgage rates, the 10 year note, has solid resistance at its recent lows at 2.90% to 2.88% range with support in the area of 3.05% on recent selling.

The stock market remains confined to a wide trading range with many large investors still sitting it out while more data is assessed about the near term economic outlook.

For both the short mid term, we continue to hold that the economy will not fall into a double dip recession but remain skeptical about any increased economic activity. US interest rates are going to remain low for an extended period with the economy struggling in a jobless recovery and the housing sector still in recession.

Last week Bernanke spoke of employment; it was an anti-forecast. “Uncertainty about the outlook for growth and unemployment… greater than normal….” it didn’t phase the equity markets, but taking that comment and trying to paint a glowing sunrise is more wishful thinking than thing positive news.

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The week has a couple of key data points but overall a rather sparse week for data.

This Week’s Manhattan Mortgage Economic Calendar:

Tuesday 7-27-2010

• 9:00 am Case/Shiller Home Price Index (+4.0% in May)
• 10:00 am July Consumer Confidence Index (51.0 frm 52.9 in June)
• 1:00 pm $38B 2 year note auction

Wednesday 7-28-2010

• 7:00 am Weekly MBA mortgage applications data
• 8:30 am June durable goods orders (+1.0%, ex transportation +0.5%
• 1:00 pm $37B 5 year note auction
• 2:00 pm Fed Beige Book Economic Report

Thursday 7-29-2010

• 8:30 am Weekly Jobless Claims (-4K to 460K; continuing claims 4.55 mil frm 4.49 mil)
• 1:00 $29B 7 year note auction

Friday 7-30-2010

• 8:30 am Q2 advance Gross Domestic Product (+2.5% frm +2.7% in Q1)
• 8:30 Q2 Employment Cost Index (+0.4%)
• 9:45 am July Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (56.0 frm 59.1 in June)
• 9:55 am University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (67.0 frm 66.5)

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• Manhattan Mortgage Market Preview July 6th to July 9th
• Manhattan Mortgage Market Preview August 23rd to August 27th
• Manhattan Mortgage Market Preview July 19th to July 23rd
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• Manhattan Hard Money Mortgage Provide Quick Investment Capital
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• No Credit with Manhattan Hard Money Mortgage
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• ‘Value Based Lending’ vs Credit Score Driven
• Housing Values Don’t Always Appreciate
• Your Credit Is Not Always 700+

For quite a few investors and real estate borrowers the age old adage that real estate values normally increase is not always true. While real estate has been a safe haven for numerous years, caution is the ideal approach to investing in a market that has seen an implosion in values on many asset types.

As an example, raw or undeveloped property proves to become a risky investment, specifically in rural places. Recent studies of home values in rural markets across the United states, values for this type of asset class has plummeted nearly 55% overall in more than 25 major real estate markets.

Having stated that, finding the correct asset class to invest in takes some homework and elbow grease to become successful. There are quite a few outstanding opportunities accessible for investors and lenders. The rule of thumb is stick to metropolitan locations with fine potential for growth and stability.

Many Manhattan Hard Money Mortgage lenders invest in low credit score, tarnished credit residential mortgages, as well as, commercial properties and investor rehabs. The essential would be to remember that low loan to value ratios are important to making a excellent investment for them and that means, they will fund your mortgage.

The old days of 65% LTV are more than. The a lot more savvy investor is much more apt to fund real estate projects at the 50 to 55% loan to value ratio. Hard money lenders have fueled our economy while conventional financial institutions continue to stay on the side lines.

So if you are in need of a Manhattan Hard Money Mortgage – call 1-888-577-8338 or Click HERE and we will call you.

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